CRS Points trajectory and how do you predict your CRS points?

Let’s look what the cut off has been for the last couple of years. I have taken all the data and presented in the form of a graph. The data provides the CRS cut off scores for all rounds of invitations from 6th Jan 2016 to 6th March 2019.

Few facts that we can garner from the data:

  • All CRS points cut off have been over 400. The lowest was 413 on 31st May 2017.
  • The median CRS cut off points is 446.
  •  The mean CRS points is 453.
  • Since Jan 2018, the least cut off CRS score was 438 on 30th Jan 2019

People with CRS less than 440, do not lose hope!  Even though in the entire 2016, the lowest score was 453. By April 2017, the score had dropped to below 440. The scores are very unpredictable. So, it’s better to create a profile and wait for a while to see how the trajectory of cut offs is proceeding.

Note: In case of a tie for points, the tie breaker is the date/time of creating the application.

Here’s a personal anecdote: When I was looking into Canadian Immigration back in early 2017, I had reached out to few immigration agencies. My predicted CRS score was 435. However, looking at the points for the last year (mean CRS score was over 445), they all advised me to not go forward with it. But, luckily, the cut off points started coming down. I created an express entry profile in mid 2017 with a CRS score of 435 and ended up getting selected for a draw within couple of months of creating it.


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